Analysts Say New-Car Prices Could Jump Up to 20% by 2026

After roughly two years of relative calm, the auto market appears to be gearing up for another round of price hikes. Industry analysts now expect new-car prices to climb anywhere from 5% to 20% in 2026, with certain models potentially rising even higher. The outlook comes from Nick Zuckerman, editor-in-chief of Auto30.com, who noted that the slowdown seen in 2024 and 2025 was more of a brief pause than a lasting trend.

Over the past year, average prices rose about 6%, and in 2025 they were up just 4% through October — increases that fell below inflation and stood in stark contrast to the rapid gains of 2021–2023, when prices jumped 18% to 24% annually. But 2026 is shaping up differently. Rising production costs, inflationary pressure, shifting tariffs, and ongoing challenges with chip supplies from China and battery manufacturing are all pushing pricing momentum back upward.

A recent reader poll reflected similar sentiment: two-thirds of respondents expect prices to climb 5%–20%, while 16% foresee an even steeper surge of more than 20%. Only about 10% believe the market will stay steady. For anyone weighing a purchase in the near future, waiting until 2026 might not be the best bet. Signs of another upswing are already visible, and buyers still have a window to lock in current pricing before the next wave hits.