China Aims to Sell 40 Million Cars a Year: Plans Through 2030 Revealed

China’s auto market is still on the rise, and fresh forecasts show just how big it could get by 2030. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) has released an updated projection for new vehicle sales.

According to the latest forecast, annual sales of new cars in China — including exports — are expected to surpass 40 million units by the end of the decade. For comparison: the government’s target for 2025 is 32.3 million units, while total sales in 2024 (including overseas deliveries) reached 31.4 million units.

The CPCA’s general secretary noted that there is still significant growth potential in China’s less-developed regions, where car ownership rates remain low. Nationwide, the average currently stands at about 250 cars per 1,000 people.

He also pointed to the impact of electric vehicles, which are gaining popularity and accelerating fleet turnover. At present, EVs in China are typically kept for about 10 years, compared to roughly 18 years for cars with traditional internal combustion engines.

The CPCA also released sales figures for August 2025: sales of locally built passenger cars in China rose about 5% year over year, reaching 1.995 million units. In July, the figure stood at 1.906 million.

For perspective, U.S. auto sales are projected to total around 15–16 million units in 2025 — less than half of China’s current volumes, and far below the 40 million target China has set for the end of the decade.