U.S. New Car Market Begins to Lose Momentum

The U.S. new vehicle market is beginning to cool, and several factors are contributing to the slowdown. Consumer budgets are under increasing pressure, while gasoline prices have climbed to levels not seen in more than three years. At the same time, lingering vehicle availability issues and broader geopolitical uncertainty are adding further strain to the market.

According to current estimates, about 7 million new passenger cars and pickup trucks will be sold in the United States by the end of June. If that projection holds, the market will decline by roughly 6.3 percent compared with the first quarter of 2025 and drop 8.8 percent from the previous quarter.

Fuel costs and pricing pressures are not the only factors weighing on demand. Severe weather conditions earlier in the year and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty have also dampened consumer activity. At this pace, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales—known in the industry as SAAR—could settle around 15.9 million vehicles for the full year.

The slowdown is being felt across the industry’s largest players. General Motors is expected to close the quarter with about 625,793 vehicles sold, a drop of 9.8 percent compared with the same period last year and roughly 11 percent lower than the previous quarter.

Toyota Motor Corporation is also losing momentum, with sales projected to fall 12.9 percent compared with the fourth quarter to about 568,737 vehicles. Ford Motor Company could face an even steeper decline, with estimates pointing to a 10.6 percent drop year over year and a 17.8 percent decrease compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.

Hyundai Motor Company is expected to see a similar downward trend this quarter, reflecting the broader market slowdown affecting several major brands.

Only a couple of manufacturers appear poised to show any quarter-to-quarter growth. Honda Motor Co. is projected to deliver about 337,604 vehicles. That would be 4 percent lower than the same period last year but still about 1.5 percent higher than the 332,578 units sold in the fourth quarter.

Nissan Motor Corporation could see a stronger rebound, potentially increasing sales by as much as 13 percent compared with the previous quarter to around 242,072 vehicles. However, the brand would still trail its first-quarter 2025 results by roughly 9.4 percent.