Abubuwan LFP a $45 kowane kWh: Rago na farashin batirin ya wuce dukkan hasashe

Farashin batirin motoci mai amfani da lantarki ya kai wani tushe, yana bude babi na zamani sabo a cikin motsi mai sauki. China, lithium da yawan samarwa — su ne muhimman abubuwan wannan muhimmin lokaci cikin masana'antar, wanda ya sa gaggauta raguwar farashin batirin.

Masana'antar motoci masu amfani da lantarki na fuskantar babbar dama: farashin batirin lithium ya karye da saurin da ma mafi 'yan hasashen masu haske basu yi tsammani ba. Raguwar farashin ya kasance sosai wanda akwai tayin kasa da $50 kowane kWh — wannan wata alama ce ta fuska ta tunani wanda, a cewar kwararru, bude hanya zuwa ga karuwar karbar motocin lantarki.

A watan Satumba na shekarar da ta gabata, farashin batirin mota guda daya ya kasance na $66.5 kowane kWh, ma'ana raguwar kusa da 20% a cikin shekara guda. Wannan ba kai tsaye ba ne mala, wannan bijamin saifu ne wanda ya ba masana'antar faduwa kuskure.

Batirin LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate), wanda ke kara yaduwa, ya riga ya wuce ragon $60/kWh, kuma a wasun lokuta farashin sun kai $45. Kuma ba wannan ba ne zancen lissafi na nazari, amma farashin na gaskiya a kasuwa, wanda ke jawo hankalin cikin fannin motsi da kuma tsarin ajiye wutar lantarki na toshin.

Menene ya jawo wannan wurar faduwa? Babban makasin ya kasance raguwar farashin kariyo na lithium — wata albarkatun muhalli ma'ana, wacce yanzu tana da tsadar da take da ita shekaru hudu da suka gabata, kafin "karfin lokacin" na motoci masu amfani da lantarki. Mai barin tarihi — China: tallafin gwamnati ya sa ginigina mai sauri, wanda ya kai zuwa yawan samarwa da wadata mai yawa. A cikin yanayin kasuwar da tuni ta wadatu, masana'antu sun tilasta soken farashin su domin ci gaba da kasancewa cikin dama.

Wannan sabon yanayi yana da tasirin gaskiya kan mashahuran motoci masu amfani da lantarki. Alal misali, nau'i na batirin LFP na watt 60. kWh yanzu yana kudi kimanin $3600. Yi la'akari da cewa batirin shine mafi tsada daga cikin motoci masu amfani da lantarki, wannan raguwar farashin na iya zama wani juyin-juya hali, kuma zai iya sa farashin motocin lantarki ya zama kasa fiye da na motoci masu amfani da injin wuta.

Duk da haka, duk da raguwar farashin, bukatar tana ci gaba da karuwa. Kamfanoni a fadin duniya da ke yaki mai tsanani don samun damar zuwa sabbin tusan lithium. Misali, Chile tana shirin ninka yawan hakan a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, kuma kamfanin hakar ma'adinai na Rio Tinto kwanan nan ya sami $6.7 biliyan don sayen Arcadium Lithium — wannan dukkansa yana tabbatar da cewa "farin zinariya" har yanzu shi ne muhimmin albarkatu.

A lokaci guda da Turai take karin haraji, domin kare masana'antarta daga zuba jari na motocin China. A cikin matakan akwai karin haraji %9 na wasu motoci da kuma dari na 17% zuwa 36,3% dangane da masana'anta. Wannan yana nuna kara bayani cewa motar lantarki ta riga ta zama sashen wasa na siyasar duniya.

Duk da haka, babu wanda zai iya ba da tabbacin cewa farashin mai rahusa zai ci gaba. Kasuwa za ta ci gaba tamkar ruwa na taya, kuma yaki kan albarkatun muhalli zai iya jawo zuwa sabuwar karuwar farashin ga irin wadannan masana'anta wadanda basu samu dogon lokaci na kan ka'ida ba.

Kammalawa: mun kasance a gaban wani juyin masu karfi, inda mahimmiyar sashi na mota mai amfani da lantarki — batirin — ke kan babbar ragin farashi, tare da amfani na ci gaba da lokaci: tare da karuwar yawan karfi da matsakaicin hana yawan ƙididdigar sauri na nauyin batirin.